Frontier offshore wind regions: laying the groundwork for the future

As key offshore wind regions mature, yet more regions are only in the very early stages of entering the global market. Within the Americas, the Mediterranean, APAC, and the Caspian Sea there are countries positioning themselves to begin development within the next few years yet more still a few steps behind but with major potential. 

Each of these frontier offshore wind regions have ambitious capacity targets but, as with more mature regions, they face complicated challenges. The usual suspects of regulatory hurdles, grid constraints, domestic infrastructure, and logistical challenges must all be surmounted. 

‍Read More: Offshore wind in APAC: opportunities, challenges and emerging players

‍Possible delays for Brazilian offshore wind while Colombia gets started

In South America, Brazil and Colombia are cautiously advancing their offshore wind ambitions. 

To date, over 170 GW of project requests have been filed with Brazil’s environmental agency IBAMA, though most remain speculative. 

Earlier this year, the Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, kick started the Brazilian offshore wind sector by signing a bill into law that established regulations on allocating and permitting offshore wind development areas. Following this momentum, the first offshore wind auction was expected to take place in 2025, however, it is clear this will no longer be the case. Media reports have indicated that a newly formed offshore wind working group has the aim of clarifying federal regulations. With around nine months to present these new laws, this would put the earliest possible time for an auction in the second half of 2026—right in the middle of an election period. While an auction can take place in an election year there are some restrictions that could complicate it. This could mean the auction is delayed even further still, putting Brazil at risk of being left behind as the global market moves on. 

In June, Brazil granted its first preliminary licence for SENAI’s pilot project—the first offshore wind project in Brazilian waters. The SENAI Institute of Innovation in Renewable Energy (ISI-ER) and SENAI’s Rio Grande do Norte branch (SENAI-RN) is aiming to sign contracts by December and launch the project by April 2026. A key challenge for this project will be in defining grid connection responsibilities and aligning transmission development with project sites. SENAI is currently seeking investment for the project which, if successful, should be operational by the end of 2028. 

While the SENAI pilot would be the first bottom-fixed project, the Japanese floating wind developer Japan Blue Energy is planning a single-turbine 18 MW floating wind demonstrator off the coast of Rio Grande do Sol. The Aura Sul Wind project has an expected investment of USD 100 million and is expected to be installed by 2030. Featuring Raijin Float Technology, the platform will be made of pre-cast and pre-stressed concrete with a tower of approximately 200 metres high. 

Colombia continues to build the foundations for future offshore wind development with the government launching an offshore wind roadmap in collaboration with the World Bank. The country faces an uphill challenge, however, with a small power market and limited coastal grid infrastructure. The country also has a strong hydro capacity which means that offshore wind is more of a long-term option rather than a near-term priority. 

In October, Colombia launched its first offshore wind bidding round for an overall 1 GW. The round has attracted a bid from international player Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP). No additional bid details have been made public at this time. 

‍Nova Scotia set to be the leading Canadian offshore wind region

While the offshore wind market elsewhere in North America is going through a period of unrest, the Canadian sector is just getting started. 

‍Read More: US Wind under President Trump: the legal and practical realities of the renewables crackdown

There are currently five offshore wind development zones off Nova Scotia on Canada’s east coast. With Canada seeking to become an “energy superpower” under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is pushing for the province to lead the country’s offshore wind sector. 

Canada has a 5 GW target for 2030, but with a current capacity pipeline of 800 MW, equally split between fixed and floating technologies, this target is almost impossible. 

‍Strong floating wind potential across the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean has high potential for offshore wind, particularly floating wind thanks to the wind resources in the region. As a sign of things to come, the world’s first floating turbine demonstrator was installed in Italy back in the late 2000s. 

For now, there is only one fully commissioned bottom-fixed project in the region: Italy’s 30 MW, nearshore 10-turbine Taranto wind farm which was commissioned in 2022, and none currently under construction. There are only a handful of bottom-fixed projects in the potential pipeline for Italy, all located in the Adriatic Sea. In contrast there are 45 potential floating projects in Italian waters located in the southern Adriatic, Ionian and off the coast of Emilia-Romagna as well as off the islands of Sicily and Sardinia.

Despite the country’s potential, Italy must meet several challenges including fragmented regulation, lengthy and complex approval processes, grid limitations and investor uncertainty. 

Türkiye has recently reaffirmed its offshore wind ambitions by releasing a national strategy identifying potential zones in the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean. Despite this, the country has yet to announce a leasing calendar—although industry reports have indicated that an initial 1 GW auction could take place by late 2026 or early 2027 with a second to follow in 2028. 

Given Türkiye’s strong onshore wind market and growing solar sector, offshore wind is likely to remain a secondary focus for now. Additional work must be undertaken before the sector can really get going, with regulations, permits and PPA structures needing to evolve in order to make projects bankable. 

‍Potential for Portugal across the Atlantic coast

Portugal’s official country target is 2 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Like the Mediterranean, and with most development areas along the Atlantic coastline, floating wind is the dominant technology. 

Earlier this year it was reported that the Portuguese government had outlined the framework for its first auction of commercial-scale offshore wind farms. The auction is expected to take place in Q3 2026.

‍APAC up-and-comers prepare to make their debut

Australia and the Philippines are two of the most promising offshore wind markets in the APAC region—but there is still some way to go.  

Australia has a structured and cautious approach to offshore wind development with priority being given to environmental, social, and technical assessments before any construction begins. Early moves have shown strong interest. In 2024, Feasibility Licenses were awarded to six projects across the Gippsland zone, including projects led by major developers such as Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, RWE, and Orsted. In parallel, the Novocastrian Wind and Spinifex offshore wind projects have also secured feasibility licenses to expand the early-stage pipeline. 

However, Australia has not been immune to many of the issues plaguing other frontier offshore regions. While international interest remains strong, several developers are reassessing their portfolios in light of inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain uncertainties. Due to the cautious nature of the Australian market, it is unlikely that a full-scale buildout will happen before the 2030s.

After years of assessments and mapping, the Philippines is making its official offshore wind debut with the launch of its first offshore wind-dedicated auction and 3,300 MW on offer. The country is aiming to install its first turbines between 2028 and 2030, focusing on high-wind-speed sites in deep waters. 

This auction marks a turning point and there are early indications of strong developer interest from the likes of Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and BlueFloat Energy. However, bringing projects to fruition will depend heavily on port infrastructure upgrades and grid integration planning. Both elements are currently under development. 

‍Logistics are a barrier for Caspian offshore wind

As with the O&G market before it, offshore wind will be constrained to some extent by the logistics of operating in the landlocked Caspian Sea. The Volga-Don Canal allows for some movement, however, its shallow water limits access for heavy-lift vessels. This makes bottom-fixed installations complex. 

There is potential for floating wind, especially since 122 GW of Azerbaijan’s 157 GW technical potential is in floating-compatible zones according to the WorldBank. However, cost and infrastructure gaps will continue to weigh on feasibility. For now, Spinergie indexes a current floating wind capacity pipeline of 3.5 GW.

Still, Azerbaijan is leading offshore wind momentum in the region. In addition to earlier partnerships with Masdar and ACWA Power for up to 3.5 GW, the country recently signed new agreements with Chinese developers. In April 2024, the Ministry of Energy and SOCAR Green signed an MoU with China Datang Overseas Investment and PowerChina to develop a 2 GW offshore wind project in phases. A separate agreement was also concluded with China Energy Overseas Investment. These deals aim to jointly assess, finance, and operate large-scale projects in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea. 

Across these frontier markets, a clear pattern emerges: many require extensive policy and grid planning to become investment ready. There are strong potential pipelines for all of these countries, but the focus must currently remain on building a solid foundation to create the conditions needed to meet these future projects. 

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