Heavy-lift vessel availability is one of the most consequential constraints in offshore wind installation. Spinergie's bottom-up heavy lift vessel forecast weighs future demand against current fleet supply, identifying installation capacity bottlenecks and market dynamics through 2040. With this, it delivers strategic intelligence for operators and investors navigating a rapidly evolving market.
Market Outlook
Bottom-fixed demand analysis
Fleet analysis
Fleet growth
Gap Analysis
Offshore wind demand has shifted beyond 2030 as developers reassess portfolios. While early-stage projects face delays, the period from 2030 to 2035 is seeing increased commitments, with 183 GW worth of demand now projected: 25 GW higher than previous estimates. This reallocation reflects a market correction, prioritising execution over targets.
Heavy-lift vessel limitations continue to restrict offshore wind capacity rollout. The maximum bottom-fixed capacity installed by 2030 remains capped at 129 GW, rising to 206 GW by 2035, despite a growing demand pipeline.
The offshore wind sector faces a slowdown in heavy lift vessel orders due to inflation, financial risk aversion, and shipyard slots booked for oil and gas projects. This limits fleet expansion to a speculative 86 vessels by 2029, with no confirmed new vessel investments expected in 2025. As appetite for nextgeneration turbines remains high, installation bottlenecks will intensify unless shipowners commit to newbuilds.
Yvan Gelbart is Lead Analyst at Spinergie, where he works on offshore wind market intelligence, forecasting, and data-driven analysis. With seven years of experience in the energy sector, his work covers econometric models of offshore installation supply and demand, predictive forecasting, and geospatial data. He routinely leads major analytical pieces such as the Spinergie Wind Forecast Report, and has authored several insights and white papers on topics across the offshore wind sector.
