Offshore Wind Installation Forecast Analysis & Report

Spinergie’s granular, bottom-up Offshore Wind Installation Forecast compares heavy-lift vessel supply with future demand. The analysis highlights key trends, growth projections and challenges facing the sector, with a focus on installation vessel market dynamics. It includes forecasts and potential bottlenecks in installation capacity through 2040, providing strategic insights for industry stakeholders navigating the evolving offshore wind market.

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Table of content

Demand

Market Outlook

Market commentary, strategic outlook, and current trends
Offshore wind demand detail per region and regional growth trends

Bottom-fixed demand analysis

Foundation types and size evolution
Future WTG sizes and new models coming to the market

Supply

Fleet analysis

Fleet segmentation, main purpose specialization
Utilization analysis per category of vessels and forward-looking utilization
Installation capabilities in categories of turbine size and foundation weight

Fleet growth

Current delivery pipeline and potential newbuilds intel

Supply - Demand comparison

Gap Analysis

Impact on installed capacity and annual bottleneck
Future O&M pressure on WTIV fleet

Demand shift: developers rationalized their portfolios

Offshore wind demand has shifted beyond 2030 as developers reassess portfolios. While early-stage projects face delays, the period from 2030 to 2035 is seeing increased commitments, with 183 GW worth of demand now projected: 25 GW higher than previous estimates. This reallocation reflects a market correction, prioritizing execution over targets.

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Heavy Lift Vessel bottlenecks remain

Heavy-lift vessel limitations continue to restrict offshore wind capacity rollout. The maximum bottom-fixed capacity installed by 2030 remains capped at 129 GW, rising to 206 GW by 2035, despite a growing demand pipeline.

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New builds orders stagnate

The offshore wind sector faces a slowdown in heavy lift vessel orders due to inflation, financial risk aversion, and shipyard slots booked for oil and gas projects. This limits fleet expansion to a speculative 86 vessels by 2029, with no confirmed new vessel investments expected in 2025. As appetite for nextgeneration turbines remains high, installation bottlenecks will intensify unless shipowners commit to new builds.

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