Demand shift: developers rationalized their portfolios
Offshore wind demand has shifted beyond 2030 as developers reassess portfolios. While early-stage projects face delays, the period from 2030 to 2035 is seeing increased commitments, with 183 GW worth of demand now projected: 25 GW higher than previous estimates. This reallocation reflects a market correction, prioritizing execution over targets.
Heavy Lift Vessel bottlenecks remain
Heavy-lift vessel limitations continue to restrict offshore wind capacity rollout. The maximum bottom-fixed capacity installed by 2030 remains capped at 129 GW, rising to 206 GW by 2035, despite a growing demand pipeline.
New builds orders stagnate
The offshore wind sector faces a slowdown in heavy lift vessel orders due to inflation, financial risk aversion, and shipyard slots booked for oil and gas projects. This limits fleet expansion to a speculative 86 vessels by 2029, with no confirmed new vessel investments expected in 2025. As appetite for nextgeneration turbines remains high, installation bottlenecks will intensify unless shipowners commit to new builds.
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