Executive Summary
This forecast report stems from a blunt observation: Governments publish targets, developers publish project pipelines; both can balloon into hundreds of gigawatts of offshore wind energy. But at the end of the day, steel only moves when contracts, permits, grid links, factories and vessels line up.
The last two years widened the gap between the potential capacity and actual rollout. Developers slowed FIDs and cancelled weaker projects as costs rose and policy support became harder to read. Then, turbine OEMs and manufacturers stopped expanding capacity and focused on keeping existing lines profitable. Vessel owners became cautious on newbuilds. Shipyards became more expensive to order from. That sequence fed on itself: less visibility meant less investment, which raised costs and stretched schedules, pushing developers to delay again.
Paradoxically, the downturn also created a healthy reset.With fewer projects fighting for the same scarce slots, execution becomes easier. Crews, yards, and heavy-lift vessels get breathing room. Planning improves, and campaigns run with fewer clashes. Delivery and confidence can follow, but it returns in a tighter form, with more scrutiny on contracting terms and balance sheet exposure.
The constraint is now less in physical scarcity and more in finance; since offshore wind is CAPEX-heavy, when rates rise, the hurdle rate rises with them. Projects that stay economic move forward, but the rest wait for better off take, better policy, or a lower cost of capital.
Spinergie’s forecasting method reflects this reality. In this edition, released alongside updates to our market intelligence platform, we heavily cut into potential demand.We are examining the supply ceiling from both fleet and factory capacity, corrected for utilization, maintenance and lead times. The result is a realistic view of offshore wind that highlights what has to change for the next growth phase to hold.
