How upcoming presidential election results could impact French offshore wind (English Version)

The U.S. has demonstrated how political risk can swiftly translate into project-level disruption. With France's AO9/AO10 round concluding just before the 2027 presidential election, and the Rassemblement National making opposition to wind power a central plank, this white paper explores what a hostile executive could actually do.

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Introduction

In 2024, Spinergie tracked how a single U.S. presidential election translated into a wave of stop-work orders, lease suspensions, and developer exits. France is now approaching a comparable moment: a large, state-led pipeline is accelerating toward its most consequential tender round just as the 2027 presidential election comes into view. All happening with the Rassemblement National, the most wind-hostile major force in French politics, as a credible contender.

What You'll Learn

A four-stage political risk hierarchy for French offshore wind projects: from fully protected operating assets to the entirely exposed pre-auction pipeline.
What a wind-hostile French president could legally do, and what is materially harder to undo, once environmental authorisations and maritime concessions have been granted.
Why AO9/AO10 award timing will determine the exposure of France's next 10 GW of pipeline.
Where the RN, LR, Renaissance, PS and LFI each stand on offshore wind, and what each scenario means for future tender activity.

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